Someone Made a Fortune off the Iran War. And Nobody Is Investigating.

See the sample subpoena to produce 18 categories of docs, items and things in footnote #1

Let me walk you through what happened on March 23, 2026, because the facts demand your attention.

All weekend, President Trump threatened to obliterate Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened within 48 hours. The rhetoric was nuclear-grade. Markets were closed. Liquidity was thin. Traders around the world were bracing for escalation.

Then something changed.

At approximately 6:49 AM EST on Monday morning, someone started buying. S&P 500 E-mini futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw a massive, isolated spike in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. Senator Chris Murphy reported approximately $1.5 billion in notional S&P futures were purchased. At the same time, roughly $580 million in crude oil futures were sold on the West Texas Intermediate market. Bloomberg analyzed the same trading window over the prior five business days.

The average volume was around 700 contracts. That Monday, approximately 6,200 contracts moved in a single minute. Energy Aspects head of derivatives Tim Skirrow confirmed the activity was six times larger than normal.

Sixteen minutes later, at 7:05 AM, Trump posted that the United States and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive conversations” and that he was calling a five-day moratorium on strikes.

Iran denied those conversations ever happened. Their Foreign Ministry stated plainly that no dialogue between Tehran and Washington was underway.

Let that land. Someone moved billions in futures contracts minutes before a presidential announcement that reversed an entire weekend of war rhetoric. And the country on the other end of the so-called negotiation said no talks took place.

This is not a one-time event. The same suspicious trading patterns surfaced around Trump’s tariff reversals in April 2025. Similar activity appeared ahead of the Maduro operation in Venezuela, where one trader made $436,000 on a $32,000 Polymarket bet correctly predicting the timing of the capture.

CNN reported that another anonymous trader maintained a 93 percent win rate across dozens of five-figure wagers correctly predicting unannounced U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, netting nearly $967,000 since 2024. A separate Polymarket account called “Magamyman” pulled in more than $553,000 in a single day betting on the removal of Ayatollah Khamenei, hours before an Israeli airstrike killed him.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the agency responsible for policing this kind of trading. For months, Trump’s CFTC took no meaningful enforcement action. Its former head of enforcement, Margaret Ryan, resigned after six months on the job. On March 31, the CFTC’s new enforcement director, David Miller, declared at NYU School of Law that insider trading in prediction markets is now a top enforcement priority.

My suggestion is that after the midterms, the new Congress with a democratic majority conducting oversight, issue the subpoenas to all involved marketplaces including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Polymarket and Kalshi, demanding the full production of the items set forth here.¹

No charges have been filed. Congress has introduced the PREDICT Act to bar executive branch officials and their families from prediction market trading, and a bipartisan bill from Representative Blake Moore would ban wagers on war, terrorism, and assassinations. None of it has become law.

Meanwhile, Anthony Scaramucci recently stated publicly that Don Jr. has said the family intends to become the richest family in the world before they leave the presidency. The Trump family now holds advisory roles at Polymarket and Kalshi, runs Truth Predict through Trump Media, and has built a crypto empire that House Judiciary Committee Democrats documented as generating hundreds of millions in personal enrichment since the 2024 campaign.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called this pattern treasonous. Not because of the money alone. Because foreign adversaries are watching these markets in real time. Every suspiciously timed trade broadcasts to Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia that someone with access to classified military information is willing to act on it for profit. As Krugman explained on NPR, if financial media outlets spotted the anomaly within hours, foreign intelligence services are doing the same. That makes this functionally indistinguishable from selling national secrets.

Martha Stewart went to federal prison for five months after lying to investigators about a stock trade that saved her $45,673. The SEC prosecuted. The FBI investigated. The system worked.

Someone appears to have made hundreds of millions trading on war. And the system has done nothing.

That is not a political opinion. That is a fact pattern that demands investigation.

Mitch Jackson, Esq.

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Related:

When the Casino Meets the War Room: Prediction Markets, Insider Trading, and the Iran Problem

Did Defense Secretary Hegseth Allegedly Try to Cash In on a War He Was About to Start?

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Suggested Subpoenas

1. All records should be subpoenaed by Congress once Democrats regain the majority and have the ability to exercise oversight authority. The idea is to force production of identity (KYC and real-world linkage); capture technical traceability (blockchain + IP + device) and compel behavioral and analytical evidence (trading patterns + internal investigations). Subpoenas should be issues against all marketplace participants including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Polymarket and Kalshi.

REQUEST FOR PRODUCTION OF DOCUMENTS AND ELECTRONICALLY STORED INFORMATION

For the period of [insert date range], produce any and all documents, electronically stored information (“ESI”), data, records, logs, communications, databases, and tangible things, whether stored internally or by third parties within your possession, custody, or control, sufficient to identify, locate, authenticate, trace, and connect any natural person or entity that opened, controlled, accessed, funded, traded through, benefited from, or was otherwise associated with any account, wallet, address, device, credential, or transaction relating to [insert subject matter, including specific markets, trades, transactions, wallet addresses, usernames, or account identifiers], including without limitation the following:

1. All account registration, onboarding, and identity verification records, including all KYC, AML, CIP, and related due diligence materials, containing names, aliases, usernames, display names, dates of birth, government-issued identification, photographs, biometric verification data, Social Security or tax identification numbers, addresses, telephone numbers, email addresses, employment and occupation information, and all documents submitted to verify identity.

2. All records sufficient to identify every natural person, business entity, beneficial owner, controller, authorized user, agent, delegate, or affiliated party associated with any responsive account, including all linked, related, duplicate, or commonly controlled accounts, subaccounts, institutional accounts, and accounts identified by the platform as connected.

3. All funding, deposit, withdrawal, transfer, settlement, and payment records, including bank accounts, routing information, wire transfers, ACH transactions, card transactions, payment processor records, stablecoin or cryptocurrency transfers, on-ramp and off-ramp records, and all information reflecting the source and destination of funds.

4. All records identifying every wallet, blockchain address, smart contract wallet, proxy wallet, deposit address, withdrawal address, or other on-chain identifier associated with any responsive account or transaction, including records sufficient to show how and when such addresses were created, linked, verified, funded, or used.

5. All blockchain transaction records, including transaction hashes, block numbers, timestamps, chain identifiers, contract addresses, and records sufficient to trace the flow of funds to and from any responsive wallet or address.

6. All records sufficient to identify and trace transaction flows across wallets, including internal or third-party blockchain analytics, clustering analyses, attribution data, wallet linkage determinations, and any reports or data obtained from blockchain intelligence or forensic vendors.

7. All API credentials, authentication records, login credentials, session tokens, private keys (if held), access tokens, and all records sufficient to identify the creation, use, and access history of such credentials, including associated timestamps, IP addresses, and devices.

8. All login, access, and usage records, including login and logout logs, session logs, failed access attempts, password resets, multi-factor authentication records, API request logs, WebSocket logs, and all audit logs reflecting account activity.

9. All IP address, geolocation, and network records associated with any responsive account or transaction, including current and historical IP addresses, timestamps, geographic location data, ISP information, and any determinations relating to geoblocking, VPN usage, proxy usage, TOR usage, or location masking.

10. All device and technical metadata associated with any responsive account or transaction, including device identifiers, device fingerprints, browser information, operating systems, mobile identifiers, cookies, tracking identifiers, and any records linking multiple accounts or sessions to the same device.

11. All trading records, including complete order, bid, ask, cancellation, modification, execution, fill, settlement, position, portfolio, balance, and profit and loss history, including all timestamps, order IDs, trade IDs, quantities, prices, fees, counterparties (if known), and status changes.

12. All communications and correspondence relating to any responsive account, transaction, or market, including emails, messages, chat logs, support tickets, internal notes, compliance communications, and communications with third-party service providers.

13. All compliance, fraud detection, surveillance, and monitoring records, including alerts, flags, internal investigations, suspicious activity reports, market manipulation reviews, insider trading reviews, and any actions taken or considered in response.

14. All records reflecting linkage between accounts, wallets, devices, IP addresses, payment methods, or users, including any internal determinations or analyses identifying accounts as related, affiliated, or commonly controlled.

15. All records sufficient to identify any third-party service providers involved in identity verification, payment processing, custody, blockchain analytics, device intelligence, or fraud detection, and all records obtained from or shared with such providers relating to responsive accounts or transactions.

16. All records reflecting publicly visible or user-generated content associated with responsive accounts, including usernames, profiles, aliases, referral codes, and any publicly shared or platform-displayed activity.

17. All data dictionaries, schema definitions, field descriptions, and documentation necessary to interpret the produced data, including explanations of identifiers, timestamps, logs, and relational database structures.

18. All records reflecting data retention, deletion, modification, or archival policies and actions relating to the foregoing materials.

FORM OF PRODUCTION

Produce all ESI in native format where reasonably available, including all associated metadata, timestamps, and relational data. For blockchain-related records, include all wallet addresses, transaction hashes, block numbers, and any internal mappings between on-chain identifiers and platform user accounts. For databases and logs, produce in a reasonably usable format preserving field names, relationships, and audit history.